With less than two months to go till the May 14 British Columbia provincial election, we can expect to see a wave of opinion polls. The most recent poll from a major public pollster suggests the NDP has a 19-point lead over the ruling Liberals.
As you can see, pre-election results have been bouncing up and down since the beginning of the year – something that tends to happen with pre-election polls. (Click graph to enlarge.)
Here’s a summary of the polls taken in 2013:
|Angus Reid||17-18 Jan||31||46||10||10||3||Online||802||3.5|
|Justason||25 Jan – 1 Feb||26||48||12||11||3||Phone-online||600||4|
|Angus Reid||21-22 Feb||31||47||9||10||3||Online||803||3.5|
Note: The sampling error margins given here are those provided by the pollster. While online polls have had a high level of success at predicting recent elections, there is a methodological controversy surrounding the citing of margins of error for online polls. Some experts hold that it is inappropriate to quote a margin of error for an online poll because participants in such polls are drawn from volunteer panels, rather than chosen at random from the general population. For more on this issue, see this story.