Adrian Dix

Ekos poll puts NDP ahead by 12 points

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By Tom Barrett
TheTyee.ca

A new poll suggests the NDP is ahead of the governing BC Liberals by 12 percentage points on the eve of the official kickoff to the May 14 election campaign.

The Ekos poll found a considerably smaller lead for the NDP than an Angus Reid poll taken in mid-March, which had the New Democrats ahead by 20 points. However, the Ekos numbers are little changed from the last Ekos B.C. poll, taken at the beginning of February.

The new poll, conducted April 3 to 10, puts the NDP at 39 per cent, the BC Liberals at 27 per cent, the BC Greens at 16 per cent and the BC Conservatives at 13 per cent among decided and leaning voters.

Among likely voters, the NDP lead grows to 17 points. Among those deemed most likely to actually turn out at the polls, the NDP receives 45 per cent, the Liberals 28, the Greens 11 and the Conservatives 13.

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BC no longer sees Liberals as sound money managers: poll

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By Tom Barrett
The Tyee.ca

A new poll suggests that British Columbians believe the NDP by a two-to-one margin over the Liberal government when it comes to the state of B.C.’s finances.

The Angus Reid Public Opinion poll comes as Premier Christy Clark prepares to go on TV to talk up her government’s economic performance in advance of the May 14 election. The half-hour infomercial, on the theme “Strong Economy. Secure Tomorrow,” runs on Global Television at 7 p.m. Sunday.

While the Liberals’ ability to manage the economy has traditionally been seen by voters as one of the party’s strengths, the new poll suggests British Columbians no longer see the governing party as sound money managers.

In its recent budget, the Clark government promised a $197-million surplus. However, the Opposition New Democrats insist the province is heading for a $790-million deficit. When respondents were asked in the online poll which view they found more credible, 24 per cent said they favoured the Liberals.

Fifty per cent said they favoured the NDP. A further 26 per cent said they were unsure.

A remarkable 29 per cent of those who said they voted Liberal in the 2009 election said they found the NDP more credible on this question.

The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday among 807 British Columbians. Angus Reid states a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20, for this sample. While online polls have been very successful at predicting recent elections, there is a methodological controversy surrounding the citing of margins of error for online polls.

Some experts hold that it is inappropriate to quote a margin of error for an online poll because participants in such polls are drawn from volunteer panels, rather than chosen at random from the general population. For more on this issue, see this story.

Find Tyee election reporting team member and contributing editor Tom Barrett’s previous Tyee articles here. Find him on Twitter or email him here.

Angus Reid poll: BC NDP up by 20 points

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There’s a new poll from Angus Reid Public Opinion today that suggests the B.C. New Democrats are 20 points up on the governing Liberals.

The poll has the NDP with 48 per cent support of decided voters, the Liberals at 28 per cent, the Green party at 11 per cent and the B.C. Conservatives up two points at 11 per cent.

All changes from the last Reid poll, taken Feb. 21-22, are within the margin of error for a poll of this sample size.

The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday of this week. Reid surveyed 809 B.C. adults drawn from an online panel. A sample of this size drawn at random from the general population would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20. (See note below.)

Here’s an updated chart of the polls taken so far this year:

Company Date Lib NDP Cons Green Other Method Sample +/-
Angus Reid 17-18 Jan 31 46 10 10 3 Online 802 3.5
Mustel 11-21 Jan 33 43 11 11 2 Phone 509 4.3
Justason 25 Jan – 1 Feb 26 48 12 11 3 Phone-online 600 4
Ekos 1-10 Feb 27.4 39.0 14.6 13.5 5.5 IVR* 687 3.7
Angus Reid 21-22 Feb 31 47 9 10 3 Online 803 3.5
Ipsos 8-12 Mar 32 51 9 7 1 Online 1,000 3.1
Angus Reid 18-19 Mar 48 28 11 11 2 Online 809 3.5

* Interactive Voice Response

Note: The sampling error margins given here are those provided by the pollster. While online polls have been very successful at predicting recent elections, there is a methodological controversy surrounding the citing of margins of error for online polls. Some experts hold that it is inappropriate to quote a margin of error for an online poll because participants in such polls are drawn from volunteer panels, rather than chosen at random from the general population. For more on this issue, see this story.

(I did a version of this item for The Tyee today that can be found here.)

Amazing Comebacks Christy Clark Hopes to Emulate

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ChristyClark
BC’s Premier Clark: Big ground to make up, but stranger things have happened.

Four election shockers that keep BC’s New Dems up at night
By Tom Barrett
TheTyee.ca

With less than three months to go until Election Day, Premier Christy Clark’s Liberals are betting on a major come-from-behind surge to wipe out the New Democratic Party’s lead in the polls.

It’s a tall order, but it wouldn’t be the first time voters have shifted that much, that fast.
“Things can change very quickly,” said Angus Reid pollster Mario Canseco. Even when an opposition party enters an election campaign with a healthy lead, voters can abandon it if they decide the party isn’t ready to govern.

For the past several years, the NDP has held a robust lead over the BC Liberals in the polls. Although the lead has dropped from highs of 20 points or more, the most recent polls still show the NDP up by 10 to 15 percentage points.

But headlines like Hudak Tories Roaring Toward a Majority: Poll and Danielle Smith’s Wildrose on Track for Majority suggest just how volatile voters can be. And headlines like ‘We Were Wrong’: Alberta Election Pollsters Red-faced as Tories Crush Wildrose serve as a reminder that polls are a snapshot in time, not a forecast.

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Dix’s Big Gamble: No Dirt

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As Libs sling mud, NDP leader refuses to go negative. Will out-of-the-box strategy box him in?
By Tom Barrett
TheTyee.ca

Mr. Nice Guy: Adrian Dix
Mr. Nice Guy: Adrian Dix

The New Democratic Party intends to win the May 14 election by campaigning against negative campaigning. NDP leader Adrian Dix has said the party won’t fight fire with fire — or, in this case, mud with mud — no matter how nasty the other side gets.

Like pornography, negative campaigning is hard to define, but we know it when we see it. And most of us say we hate it.

Still, political strategists tend to believe it works. Just look at what the Stephen Harper Conservatives did to Stéphane Dion and Michael Ignatieff. Will negative ads hurt Dix in the same way? And if they do, is being positive an effective counter-strategy?

As election day approaches, the NDP’s lead on Christy Clark’s Liberals is likely to narrow. If that happens, “the NDP may have to resort to some harder-hitting commentary on the Liberals generally and Christy Clark in particular,” said political scientist Hamish Telford. “And that will raise all sorts of questions: ‘Well, Mr. Dix, you said you were going to have a positive campaign, now you’re doing this that and the other’…

“So it does box him in a bit and that may cause him a problem for sure.”

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