Many flubbed their May 14 election calls. Here’s one who thinks he knows why. By Tom Barrett June 21, 2013 TheTyee.ca
Ipsos Reid’s Kyle Braid unravels the mystery of his election-night failure. Photo: Twitter.
Pollster Kyle Braid thinks he’s figured out how he missed so badly in the May 14 election.
Like almost every other pollster, Braid, a vice-president at Ipsos Reid, came up with results on the eve of the election that suggested a healthy victory for the New Democratic Party. When that turned into a healthy victory for the BC Liberals, Braid and the other pollsters were left with egg dripping from their faces.
The last Ipsos poll, taken May 13, suggested the NDP had the support of 45 per cent of decided voters, compared to 37 per cent for the BC Liberals. The final results were NDP 40 per cent, Liberals 44.
Braid told an audience at the Spur Festival in Vancouver this week that he thinks he adjusted his data when he shouldn’t have and failed to adjust it when he should have.
Every polling company adjusts, or weights, its samples. That’s because samples rarely look like the general population. They may, to take a simple example, contain more women than the electorate as a whole. Continue reading →
Were they foiled by the ’10-second Socred’? A look at several possibilities. By Tom Barrett
May 17 2013 TheTyee.ca
“Any election is like a horse race, in that you can tell more about it the next day.” — Sir John A. Macdonald
Tuesday’s outcome was not great publicity for some pollsters. Photo: Shutterstock.
Greg Lyle has seen a lot of election campaigns — and campaign polls — as a pollster and a political organizer.
He says there’s a key difference between parties’ internal polls and the polls you read about in the media.
“Parties spend a lot of money on polling,” Lyle said in an election night interview.
A major party will spend between $150,000 and $200,000 on polls during an election, he said. Public polls, the kind you read about in the media, are either sponsored by media outlets at a relatively low cost or given away free.
Pollsters tend to be political junkies. They like to be a part of the campaign drama and they want to know what’s happening. That’s part of the reason they give campaign polls away.
But political polls are also loss leaders for pollsters. They make their money testing public opinion for people who want to sell shampoo and potato chips; having the media talk about their election insights helps attract such clients.
So if you’re a pollster, calling an election correctly is great publicity.
Having people say “How did the pollsters get it so completely, utterly, ridiculously, ludicrously wrong?” is not great publicity.
’10-second Socred’ syndrome
Lyle, managing director of the Innovative Research Group, thinks the answer to that question lies partly in pollsters’ methodology. Many of the big polls taken during the campaign were online polls: a pollster assembles a panel of tens or hundreds of thousands of people who are willing to answer questions, sometimes for a token fee. The pollster conducts a poll by drawing names from that panel and sending out emails with links to questionnaires.
Some experts argue that such polls pose problems. While online polling has generally been pretty successful, some, like Lyle, argue that online polls don’t “respect the rules of polling, which is that everybody has a random chance, or an equal and known chance of being selected.” Continue reading →
But maybe one way to look at it is that polls don’t drive democracy. By Tom Barrett
May 15, 2013 TheTyee.ca
Fooled by prediction: NDP members hear from Adrian Dix on election night. Photo by Joshua Berson
It was a lousy night to be a pollster and a great night to be someone who thinks polls undermine democracy.
The pollsters got it wrong Tuesday: spectacularly, Alberta-sized wrong.
Not one published poll in the months before the election gave the BC Liberals a lead over the New Democratic Party. Instead of the six-to-nine percentage point NDP victory suggested by the province’s big political pollsters, voters appear to have given the Liberals a comfortable five-point victory.
It was eerily similar to the result in Alberta a year ago, when the last polls put the Wildrose party ahead of the incumbent Progressive Conservatives by six to eight points. On election night, the PCs won by a 10-point margin.
B.C. pollsters were well aware that Alberta voters appear to have changed their minds at the last minute and were polling up until the day before the vote. It didn’t help.
The closest late-stage B.C. election poll was produced by Forum Research, which still had the NDP in the lead and overestimated the NDP share of the vote by more than the poll’s margin of error.
Pollster Greg Lyle, managing director of the Innovative Research Group, said online polling — used by Ipsos and Angus Reid, B.C.’s two best-known pollsters — appears to have failed.
“There’s no doubt in my mind that the online polls overestimated the NDP,” Lyle said. “They’re going to have to tear their panels apart and figure out what they got wrong.”
Lyle, who was Gordon Campbell’s campaign director in the 1996 B.C. election, said his firm did some private polling during the campaign and found a narrow gap between the Liberals and NDP.
“We thought our poll was wrong because all these other online polls were saying that there was this big gap,” he said. “But I think, hindsight being 20/20, that it’s pretty clear that it was never as bad as they said.”
There appear to be biases in the makeup of the panels of respondents to online polls that will need to be addressed, Lyle said.
“Everyone got burned,” he said.
Hamish Telford, head of the political science department at the University of the Fraser Valley, said there was a large undecided vote in the polls until the last week.
“Clearly, that undecided vote broke one way rather than the other,” he said.
Find Tyee election reporting team member and contributing editor Tom Barrett’s previous Tyee articles here. Find him on Twitter or email him.
Most BC surveys give NDP solid edge but several factors keep swing ridings in play.
By Tom Barrett
May 13, 2013 TheTyee.ca
May 10 vote mob at Vancouver’s Roundhouse, where over 400 people lined up to cast ballots early. Which party gets highest turnout may decide riding races tightened in past weeks. Photo: Joshua Berson
If the polls are right, the NDP is headed for a comfortable victory Tuesday. Of course, that’s what they said in Alberta last year about the Wildrose party.
The last polls in Alberta put Wildrose ahead of the incumbent Progressive Conservatives by six to eight points. On election night, the PCs won by a 10-point margin.
Friday, B.C.’s two big political pollsters, Ipsos Reid and Angus Reid, released polls that suggested an NDP lead of between six and nine points over the incumbent B.C. Liberals.
Those are large leads, given B.C. election history. But they’re dramatically smaller than the 20-point leads the polls suggested in March. That collapse in New Democratic Party support has sparked talk of the Liberals’ Christy Clark pulling off an upset for the ages.
You expect that kind of stuff from the Liberals and their media chums. But some well-placed New Democrats are sketching the same scenario, foreseeing a calamitous alignment of the stars that combines a better-than-expected Green party showing with a worse-than-predicted B.C. Conservative showing.
At this point in the campaign, you have to assume that everything is spin. And fretting aloud about the possibility of a Liberal win suits the New Democrats’ strategy; volunteers would be spurred to work harder, supporters scared into making sure they vote and soft NDPers warned away from the Green party.
But years of losing have taught B.C. New Democrats that even the fluffiest white cloud comes with a heavy rainfall warning. And you can make a case that there may be something to their fears.
After all, look what happened in Alberta.
Conservative klutz factor
To start with, the B.C. Conservatives are fielding only 60 candidates in the 85 ridings. Plenty of people who have told pollsters they’d vote for John Cummins’ party could turn up at the polls and discover they don’t have a Conservative to vote for. Will those people end up voting Liberal? Continue reading →
B.C. elections tend to be close. Over the last 40 years, only two have been decided by more than 10 percentage points. Only one has been decided by more than 10.1 points.
That’s worth bearing in mind as the election polls tighten. The latest poll, from Ipsos, suggests the New Democratic Party leads the BC Liberals by 10 points. The day before that, an Angus Reid poll suggested the NDP leads by seven points.
It’s a long way to election day, but a 10-point victory would be the third-largest margin of the last 40 years. A seven-point victory would be the fourth-largest in that period.
During the 1960s, W.A.C. Bennett’s Social Credit party beat the NDP three times by a margin of 12 to 13 points. But since the W.A.C. era ended in 1972 with an eight-point victory by the NDP, things have been much tighter.
Here are the results of the nine elections of the last four decades. The table shows the winner’s margin of victory in percentage points as well as the percentage of seats in the legislature the winner took.
Election
Winner
Margin
Seatpercentage
1975
Social Credit
10.09
64
1979
Social Credit
2.24
54
1983
Social Credit
4.82
61
1986
Social Credit
6.72
68
1991
NDP
7.46
68
1996
NDP
– 2.37
52
2001
Liberal
36.06
97
2005
Liberal
4.28
58
2009
Liberal
3.67
58
The median margin of victory for this period is 4.82 percentage points.
The biggest victory by far was 36 points in the New Democrat wipeout of 2001, when voters went to the polls with pitchforks and torches looking to throw the bums out even unto the seventh generation. The narrowest victory was in 1996, when the NDP won with fewer votes than the Liberals. That wasn’t the first time in B.C. history that the party with the most votes lost. In 1952, the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation beat Social Credit by four points on the final count, but took one less seat.
As that suggests, in our first-past-the-post system you don’t need to run up a big lead to win control of the legislature. The NDP took more seats in 1996 because their vote was spread more evenly over the province’s ridings, while the Liberal vote tended to cluster in places like West Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.
As the table above also shows, the size of a party’s victory doesn’t translate directly into seats in the legislature. It all depends on where a party’s votes are located and the strength of third parties.
The two charts below give a graphic illustration of just how close B.C. elections tend to be. If things get tight on May 14, it won’t be anything out of the ordinary.
A possible clue to why Forum had NDP, Libs closest. And other notes.
By Tom Barrett TheTyee.ca
As more people make up their minds, the polls are tightening.
Some random thoughts on a flurry of election polls…
Five of the six polls that were released last week suggest the gap between the New Democratic Party and the BC Liberals has narrowed substantially. At the end of the week, B.C.’s two biggest pollsters, Angus Reid and Ipsos Reid, weighed in. Ipsos found a 10-point gap, Angus Reid found a seven-point gap.
As you can see from the chart here, Reid shows the BC Liberals up three points from the beginning of the campaign and the NDP down four points. Ipsos shows the Liberals up six points from their start-of-the-campaign poll and the NDP down three points. Even that six-point Liberal jump from Ipsos is within the poll’s combined stated margins of error — although it’s near the outside edge.
But a trend is apparent. The polls are tightening — just as pretty much everyone predicted at the beginning of the campaign.
Is the shift due to last week’s televised leaders debate? Could be. Or it could be a result of negative Liberal ads or the relentless, if fanciful, Liberal focus on debt, the deficit and the economy during the first two weeks. Or the media’s focus on the same topics and on NDP leader Adrian Dix’s Kinder Morgan switch.
Or, quite likely, a lot of potential voters are just starting to pay attention to politics for the first time in four years.
We’ll never know the real reason because there isn’t enough information available.
Forum’s four point gap: sample skewed?
Not that there’s a shortage of facts and figures flying around from the week’s polls. Take the Forum poll that suggested the gap between the NDP and the Liberals had fallen to four points.
Here’s something interesting about that poll that my colleague Andrew MacLeod pointed out: out of 1,009 respondents, 459 said they voted for the Liberals in the last provincial election. Another 290 said they voted for the NDP, 78 said they voted BC Conservative, 79 said they voted Green, 49 said they voted for other parties and 54 said they didn’t vote.
Forum is to be commended for publicizing this much detail about their poll; not all pollsters do.
But among those respondents who say they voted in 2009, 48 per cent say they voted for the Liberals, 30 per cent for the NDP, eight per cent for the Conservatives, eight per cent for the Greens and five per cent for other parties. Five per cent of the total sample say they didn’t vote.
Here are the results from the 2009 election: Liberal, 46 per cent; NDP, 42 per cent; Conservative, two per cent, Green, eight per cent; others, two per cent.
And an estimated 49 per cent of all eligible voters didn’t vote in 2009.
Questions like this rely on sometimes faulty memories. Respondents who didn’t vote may feel pressured to lie; saying you voted is the socially acceptable answer, after all. And pollsters who discover their sample doesn’t look like the population use weighting techniques to make up for the difference.
Still, on the face of it, this sample doesn’t look much like the real world of B.C. voters.
Gender gap trap?
One interesting difference between the Ipsos and Reid polls involves the gender gap. Ipsos suggests women favour the NDP by a 20-point margin, 50 per cent to the 30 per cent who would vote Liberal. But Reid suggests the gap is eight points, 43 per cent NDP to 35 per cent Liberal. That’s a pretty big difference, but it’s worth remembering that the margin of error goes up as the sample size goes down. Continue reading →
A week full of election polls has ended with a survey from Ipsos Reid that indicates the NDP holding a 10-point lead.
Earlier this week, various pollsters gave the NDP leads ranging between 22 percentage points and four points.
The Ipsos poll, conducted online for Global BC, indicates the NDP’s lead has been cut in half since the last Ipsos poll, taken March 8-12, which put the New Democrats out ahead by 19 points.
The new Ipsos poll found 45 per cent support for the New Democrats among decided voters, down three points from the last Ipsos poll. The governing BC Liberals are at 35 per cent, up six points from the start of the campaign.
The BC Conservatives are at seven per cent, down four points, and the Green party is at 10 per cent, up one point. Other parties, including independents, were at three per cent.
The poll was released a day after three pollsters weighed in on the May 14 campaign. Forum Research suggested the New Democrats lead is four points, Insights West suggested the NDP leads by eight points and Angus Reid suggested a seven-point gap.
In the Ipsos poll, 13 per cent of respondents said they were undecided or stated no preference.
Among decided voters, few –- 15 per cent –- said they think they might change their mind by election day.
Premier Christy Clark still trails NDP leader Adrian Dix on the question of who would make the best premier, but she has jumped a significant eight points since the campaign began. Clark was named by 31 per cent as best premier, compared to 34 per cent who named Dix. Dix’s best premier rating was stable, dropping two points since the campaign began.
One put the NDP 22 points ahead, another only four. What’s going on?
By Tom Barrett TheTyee.ca
Things can change quickly during an election. Survey timing is key.
At the beginning of this week, a poll suggested the NDP was leading the BC Liberals by 22 points. Then another poll suggested a 10-point NDP lead. Then a third poll suggested four points. Then another suggested eight points. Then another one suggested seven.
Given that information, which of the following statements best matches your view:
I believe all these results.
I believe none of these results.
There’s too damn many polls.
On Thursday, Forum Research released a poll that suggested the New Democrats’ lead over the governing BC Liberals has fallen to four points. The Forum poll was followed later in the day by one from Insights West that suggested the NDP leads by eight points among decided voters. Then Angus Reid weighed in with a poll that suggested a seven-point NDP lead.
So what’s a voter to think?
For a start, most of these results fall within the range of the polls’ margins of error. The one outlier is the 22-point Justason poll, which was conducted April 15-23 — about a week before the other results. Things can change quickly during an election campaign; the dates a poll was taken are a key factor.
To see the Tyee’s table showing 17 polls going back to mid-January of this year, click on this Election Hook item published late last evening.
Next time you read a poll, arm yourself
Everyone has their own poll, it seems, and there often seems to be precious little agreement among them. Here are some resources that can help the average political junkie make sense out of all these numbers. Continue reading →
Some new polls suggest the B.C. election has suddenly become a lot tighter.
At the beginning of the week, Justason Market Intelligence released a poll indicating a 22-point lead for the NDP. At around the same time, an Abacus poll indicated a 10-point NDP lead.
Then, on Thursday, a poll from Forum Research suggested the New Democrats’ lead over the governing BC Liberals has fallen to four points.
Then a poll from Insights West suggested the NDP leads by eight points among decided voters.
A few hours later, an Angus Reid poll suggested a seven-point gap.
One more poll is expected from Ipsos this evening.
The Forum poll reports 39 per cent support for the NDP, 35 per cent for the Liberals, 12 per cent for the Green party, nine per cent for the BC Conservatives, and three per cent for others. (Those numbers don’t add up to 100, presumably because of rounding.)
The poll was sponsored by the National Post and based on a sample of 1,055 adult British Columbians. It was taken Tuesday, April 30, the day after the leaders TV debate. It was conducted by Interactive Voice Response and states a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Forum was off the mark in the Quebec and Alberta provincial elections, but they weren’t the only ones. During the 2011 Vancouver civic election, Forum released a much publicized poll that indicated Mayor Gregor Robertson held a six-point lead over NPA challenger Suzanne Anton. Robertson won by 13 points.
The Insights West poll gives the NDP 41 per cent among decided voters, the Liberals 33 per cent, the Green party 14 per cent and the Conservatives 11 per cent and others one per cent.
When the undecideds are included in the total, the Insights West numbers get much closer. The undecideds have dropped to 15 per cent from 20 per cent in the last Insights West poll, conducted in March. When the undecideds are factored in, the numbers become: NDP 33 per cent, Liberal 27 per cent, undecided 15 per cent, Greens 11 per cent, Conservative nine per cent and others one per cent. Five per cent said they will not vote.
The Insights West poll was conducted online from Monday, April 29 to Thursday, May 2 among 855 B.C. adults. The pollster states: “While statistical margins of error are arguably not applicable to online panels/online studies of this nature, we have assumed that the same margins of error apply as if it were a true unweighted random probability sample with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.” (See this story for more on this issue.)
The Angus Reid poll showed 41 per cent support for the NDP and 34 per cent for the Liberals. The Conservatives were at 10 per cent, the Greens at 12 per cent and others at three per cent.
The online poll, conducted for CTV and the Globe and Mail, was conducted Wednesday, May 1 and Thursday, May 2 among 808 B.C. adults. It claims a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Respondents to an Ipsos Reid poll taken immediately after Monday’s leaders debate named New Democrat Adrian Dix the winner, with Premier Christy Clark a close second.
The poll was conducted for Global TV online among members of an Ipsos panel who were asked in advance to watch the debate.
Popular wisdom around who won and lost such debates tends to take a day or two to form. But if the Ipsos results match the consensus that emerges, they spell big trouble for Clark and the BC Liberals. With the Liberals trailing by 14 to 20 points in recent polls, Clark needed to score a breakthrough with voters.
Instead, she turned off roughly as many Ipsos respondents as she won over.
Thirty-five per cent said Dix won the debate. Clark was chosen by 30 per cent, Green party Leader Jane Sterk was chosen by 10 per cent and B.C. Conservative John Cummins was named by three per cent.
Twenty-two per cent said they were undecided.
Cummins was named by 36 per cent as the debate’s loser. Clark was named by 27 per cent as the loser — about the same as the number who said she was the winner. Dix was named the loser by 16 per cent and Sterk by 11 per cent. Ten per cent were undecided.
There was more bad news in the poll for Clark. More respondents said their impression of the premier worsened during the debate than said it improved. Thirty-four per cent said their impression worsened compared to 25 per cent who said their impression improved. Thirty-nine per cent said the debate did not affect their impression of Clark and two per cent were undecided.
Sterk got a boost in this category: 42 per cent said their impression of the Green leader improved, compared to 15 per cent who said it worsened.
Some 32 per cent said their impression of Dix improved compared to 28 per cent who said their impression worsened.
Cummins scored particularly poorly in this category with 19 per cent improved compared to 45 per cent who said their impression worsened.
The results of this online poll are based on the answers of 677 eligible voters who watched the debate. Ipsos states a credibility interval of 4.3 percentage points.
Find Tyee election reporting team member and contributing editor Tom Barrett’s previous Tyee articles here. Find him on Twitter or email him.
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