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POLL: Latest Angus Reid sets NDP lead 14 points over Liberals

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By Tom Barrett
TheTyee.ca

A new poll from Angus Reid suggests that the New Democrats hold a 14-point lead on the BC Liberals on the eve of today’s radio debate among the party leaders.

While the gap between the two parties is three points lower than the previous Reid poll, conducted April 12 and 13, all shifts in party support are within the poll’s stated margin of error.

The latest online Reid poll found 45 per cent of decided and leaning respondents support the NDP, the same figure as the previous poll.

The BC Liberals received 31 per cent, up three percentage points from the earlier poll. The BC Conservatives received 11 per cent, down one point, and the Green party received 10 per cent, down three points. A further three per cent mentioned independent candidates or other parties.

The poll was greeted with media speculation about the reasons behind the changing numbers. However, with a stated margin of error of 3.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20, all the changes in party support could be the result of random chance.

Fifty-nine per cent agreed with the statement: “It is time for a change in government in British Columbia — a different provincial party should be elected into power.”

Twenty-five per cent agreed with the statement: “It is not time for a change in government in British Columbia — the BC Liberals should be re-elected.”

The four main party leaders debated on CKNW radio today, Friday, April 26.

The poll was conducted Wednesday, April 24 and Thursday, April 25, 2013 among 812 adult British Columbians selected at random from an Angus Reid online panel. For more about polling methodology, see this story.

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POLL: British Columbians prefer spending on health and education over debt paydown

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By Tom Barrett
TheTyee.ca

A new poll suggests that British Columbians are more interested in spending on health and education than paying down the province’s debt or cutting taxes.

The online Ipsos poll, for Global TV, asked the following question:

“On which one of the following three items would you like to see the provincial government place the greatest priority over the next few years?”

Forty-six per cent of respondents replied “increasing funding for services such as health and education”; 35 per cent replied “reducing the provincial debt” and 15 per cent said “lowering taxes.” A further four per cent said they didn’t know.

The poll also asked: “If elected, how well do you think each of the parties would do at balancing resource development and environmental protection”?

Thirty-nine per cent said Adrian Dix and the BC NDP would strike about the right balance between development and the environment, while 29 per cent said the party would put too much focus on the environment.

Thirty per cent said Christy Clark and the Liberals would strike the right balance, while 49 per cent said they would put too much focus on resource development.

Fifteen per cent said John Cummins and the BC Conservatives would strike the right balance, while 35 per cent said they would put too much focus on resource development; 47 per cent said they didn’t know.

Twelve per cent said Jane Sterk and the Green party would strike the right balance, while 61 per cent said the Greens would put too much focus on the environment.

The poll was conducted Monday, April 22 and April 23, among 455 adult British Columbians drawn from a panel assembled by Ipsos. The company states a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 per cent, 19 times out of 20. For more on polling methodology and controversies, see this story.

Find Tyee election reporting team member and contributing editor Tom Barrett’s previous Tyee articles here. Find him on Twitter or email him.

POLL: Ipsos’s latest sets NDP lead at 19 percentage points

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By Tom Barrett
TheTyee.ca

A new election poll –- the second one released yesterday -– puts the New Democrats out front of the BC Liberal Party by 19 percentage points.

Although that gap is widely expected to narrow between now and the May 14 election, it is worth observing that only two B.C. elections in the past 40 years have been decided by more than 10 percentage points. (The BC Liberals won with a 36.1-point margin in 2001 and Social Credit won by 10.1-points in 1975.)

In today’s Ipsos Reid poll, 48 per cent of decided respondents said they would vote for the NDP if the election were held tomorrow. The Liberals received 29 per cent, the B.C. Conservatives 11 per cent, the Greens nine per cent and other parties, including independent candidates, received three per cent.

About one in five –- 19 per cent -– of all respondents to the online poll were undecided or had no preference.

The results are quite close to those of yesterday’s other campaign poll, from Angus Reid, which suggested a 17-point gap between the two leading parties. (The Ipsos figures represent decided voters while the Angus Reid numbers are for those who are decided and leaning.)

The Ipsos poll was conducted for Global TV between Thursday, April 11 and Sunday, April 14, among 800 B.C. adults drawn from an online panel. Ipsos states a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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Angus Reid poll: BC NDP up by 20 points

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There’s a new poll from Angus Reid Public Opinion today that suggests the B.C. New Democrats are 20 points up on the governing Liberals.

The poll has the NDP with 48 per cent support of decided voters, the Liberals at 28 per cent, the Green party at 11 per cent and the B.C. Conservatives up two points at 11 per cent.

All changes from the last Reid poll, taken Feb. 21-22, are within the margin of error for a poll of this sample size.

The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday of this week. Reid surveyed 809 B.C. adults drawn from an online panel. A sample of this size drawn at random from the general population would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20. (See note below.)

Here’s an updated chart of the polls taken so far this year:

Company Date Lib NDP Cons Green Other Method Sample +/-
Angus Reid 17-18 Jan 31 46 10 10 3 Online 802 3.5
Mustel 11-21 Jan 33 43 11 11 2 Phone 509 4.3
Justason 25 Jan – 1 Feb 26 48 12 11 3 Phone-online 600 4
Ekos 1-10 Feb 27.4 39.0 14.6 13.5 5.5 IVR* 687 3.7
Angus Reid 21-22 Feb 31 47 9 10 3 Online 803 3.5
Ipsos 8-12 Mar 32 51 9 7 1 Online 1,000 3.1
Angus Reid 18-19 Mar 48 28 11 11 2 Online 809 3.5

* Interactive Voice Response

Note: The sampling error margins given here are those provided by the pollster. While online polls have been very successful at predicting recent elections, there is a methodological controversy surrounding the citing of margins of error for online polls. Some experts hold that it is inappropriate to quote a margin of error for an online poll because participants in such polls are drawn from volunteer panels, rather than chosen at random from the general population. For more on this issue, see this story.

(I did a version of this item for The Tyee today that can be found here.)