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POLL: Abacus Data suggests closer race between NDP and Liberals

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By Tom Barrett
TheTyee.ca

A poll from Abacus Data suggests a 10-point lead for the New Democrats -– by far the closest result of any B.C. political poll taken since January.

The Abacus poll was released at around the same time as a Justason Market Intelligence poll that suggested a 22-point lead for the New Democrats.

The online Abacus poll results for decided and leaning voters were: BC Liberals 33, NDP 43, BC Conservatives nine, Greens 12, others three.

The Justason poll results were: Liberals 27, NDP 49, Conservatives 12, Greens 11, others one.

There are issues concerning both polls.

The Justason poll was conducted between April 15 and 23, so some of the interviews are two weeks old; the most recent ones are a week old. Justason’s poll was based on a sample of 600 potential voters –- a considerably smaller sample than other B.C. election polls. (See table below.)

The Abacus poll, conducted for the Sun News Network, had a very large sample –- 1,042 –- and was conducted from Tuesday, April 23 to Friday, April 26. However, Abacus has no track record in polling for B.C. elections, so it is difficult to say how representative its sample may be.

Other pollsters are expected to weigh in over the coming week; their results may help create a more complete picture of public opinion during this election.

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POLL: NDP’s Adrian Dix won leaders debate, Ipsos Reid suggests

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By Tom Barrett
TheTyee.ca

Respondents to an Ipsos Reid poll taken immediately after Monday’s leaders debate named New Democrat Adrian Dix the winner, with Premier Christy Clark a close second.

The poll was conducted for Global TV online among members of an Ipsos panel who were asked in advance to watch the debate.

Popular wisdom around who won and lost such debates tends to take a day or two to form. But if the Ipsos results match the consensus that emerges, they spell big trouble for Clark and the BC Liberals. With the Liberals trailing by 14 to 20 points in recent polls, Clark needed to score a breakthrough with voters.

Instead, she turned off roughly as many Ipsos respondents as she won over.

Thirty-five per cent said Dix won the debate. Clark was chosen by 30 per cent, Green party Leader Jane Sterk was chosen by 10 per cent and B.C. Conservative John Cummins was named by three per cent.

Twenty-two per cent said they were undecided.

Cummins was named by 36 per cent as the debate’s loser. Clark was named by 27 per cent as the loser — about the same as the number who said she was the winner. Dix was named the loser by 16 per cent and Sterk by 11 per cent. Ten per cent were undecided.

There was more bad news in the poll for Clark. More respondents said their impression of the premier worsened during the debate than said it improved. Thirty-four per cent said their impression worsened compared to 25 per cent who said their impression improved. Thirty-nine per cent said the debate did not affect their impression of Clark and two per cent were undecided.

Sterk got a boost in this category: 42 per cent said their impression of the Green leader improved, compared to 15 per cent who said it worsened.

Some 32 per cent said their impression of Dix improved compared to 28 per cent who said their impression worsened.

Cummins scored particularly poorly in this category with 19 per cent improved compared to 45 per cent who said their impression worsened.

The results of this online poll are based on the answers of 677 eligible voters who watched the debate. Ipsos states a credibility interval of 4.3 percentage points.

Find Tyee election reporting team member and contributing editor Tom Barrett’s previous Tyee articles here. Find him on Twitter or email him.

POLL: Latest Angus Reid sets NDP lead 14 points over Liberals

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By Tom Barrett
TheTyee.ca

A new poll from Angus Reid suggests that the New Democrats hold a 14-point lead on the BC Liberals on the eve of today’s radio debate among the party leaders.

While the gap between the two parties is three points lower than the previous Reid poll, conducted April 12 and 13, all shifts in party support are within the poll’s stated margin of error.

The latest online Reid poll found 45 per cent of decided and leaning respondents support the NDP, the same figure as the previous poll.

The BC Liberals received 31 per cent, up three percentage points from the earlier poll. The BC Conservatives received 11 per cent, down one point, and the Green party received 10 per cent, down three points. A further three per cent mentioned independent candidates or other parties.

The poll was greeted with media speculation about the reasons behind the changing numbers. However, with a stated margin of error of 3.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20, all the changes in party support could be the result of random chance.

Fifty-nine per cent agreed with the statement: “It is time for a change in government in British Columbia — a different provincial party should be elected into power.”

Twenty-five per cent agreed with the statement: “It is not time for a change in government in British Columbia — the BC Liberals should be re-elected.”

The four main party leaders debated on CKNW radio today, Friday, April 26.

The poll was conducted Wednesday, April 24 and Thursday, April 25, 2013 among 812 adult British Columbians selected at random from an Angus Reid online panel. For more about polling methodology, see this story.

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POLL: British Columbians prefer spending on health and education over debt paydown

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By Tom Barrett
TheTyee.ca

A new poll suggests that British Columbians are more interested in spending on health and education than paying down the province’s debt or cutting taxes.

The online Ipsos poll, for Global TV, asked the following question:

“On which one of the following three items would you like to see the provincial government place the greatest priority over the next few years?”

Forty-six per cent of respondents replied “increasing funding for services such as health and education”; 35 per cent replied “reducing the provincial debt” and 15 per cent said “lowering taxes.” A further four per cent said they didn’t know.

The poll also asked: “If elected, how well do you think each of the parties would do at balancing resource development and environmental protection”?

Thirty-nine per cent said Adrian Dix and the BC NDP would strike about the right balance between development and the environment, while 29 per cent said the party would put too much focus on the environment.

Thirty per cent said Christy Clark and the Liberals would strike the right balance, while 49 per cent said they would put too much focus on resource development.

Fifteen per cent said John Cummins and the BC Conservatives would strike the right balance, while 35 per cent said they would put too much focus on resource development; 47 per cent said they didn’t know.

Twelve per cent said Jane Sterk and the Green party would strike the right balance, while 61 per cent said the Greens would put too much focus on the environment.

The poll was conducted Monday, April 22 and April 23, among 455 adult British Columbians drawn from a panel assembled by Ipsos. The company states a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 per cent, 19 times out of 20. For more on polling methodology and controversies, see this story.

Find Tyee election reporting team member and contributing editor Tom Barrett’s previous Tyee articles here. Find him on Twitter or email him.

POLL: Ipsos’s latest sets NDP lead at 19 percentage points

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By Tom Barrett
TheTyee.ca

A new election poll –- the second one released yesterday -– puts the New Democrats out front of the BC Liberal Party by 19 percentage points.

Although that gap is widely expected to narrow between now and the May 14 election, it is worth observing that only two B.C. elections in the past 40 years have been decided by more than 10 percentage points. (The BC Liberals won with a 36.1-point margin in 2001 and Social Credit won by 10.1-points in 1975.)

In today’s Ipsos Reid poll, 48 per cent of decided respondents said they would vote for the NDP if the election were held tomorrow. The Liberals received 29 per cent, the B.C. Conservatives 11 per cent, the Greens nine per cent and other parties, including independent candidates, received three per cent.

About one in five –- 19 per cent -– of all respondents to the online poll were undecided or had no preference.

The results are quite close to those of yesterday’s other campaign poll, from Angus Reid, which suggested a 17-point gap between the two leading parties. (The Ipsos figures represent decided voters while the Angus Reid numbers are for those who are decided and leaning.)

The Ipsos poll was conducted for Global TV between Thursday, April 11 and Sunday, April 14, among 800 B.C. adults drawn from an online panel. Ipsos states a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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POLL: Sixty-one per cent say time for different party to lead BC

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By Tom Barrett
TheTyee.ca

As the provincial election campaign gets underway, a new poll suggests the New Democrats have a 17-point lead on the governing BC Liberals.

The Angus Reid poll doesn’t offer much good news for the Liberals. Some 61 per cent of respondents agreed with the statement: “It is time for a change in government in British Columbia — a different provincial party should be elected into power.”

Only 22 per cent agreed with the statement: “It is not time for a change in government in British Columbia -– the BC Liberals should be re-elected.” A further 17 per cent were unsure.

Of those respondents who said they voted for the Liberals in 2009, only 46 per cent said the government should be re-elected.

Among decided and leaning voters, the NDP leads with 45 per cent support, with the Liberals at 28 per cent, the Green party at 13, the B.C. Conservatives at 12 and others, including independents, at three per cent.

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Ekos poll puts NDP ahead by 12 points

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By Tom Barrett
TheTyee.ca

A new poll suggests the NDP is ahead of the governing BC Liberals by 12 percentage points on the eve of the official kickoff to the May 14 election campaign.

The Ekos poll found a considerably smaller lead for the NDP than an Angus Reid poll taken in mid-March, which had the New Democrats ahead by 20 points. However, the Ekos numbers are little changed from the last Ekos B.C. poll, taken at the beginning of February.

The new poll, conducted April 3 to 10, puts the NDP at 39 per cent, the BC Liberals at 27 per cent, the BC Greens at 16 per cent and the BC Conservatives at 13 per cent among decided and leaning voters.

Among likely voters, the NDP lead grows to 17 points. Among those deemed most likely to actually turn out at the polls, the NDP receives 45 per cent, the Liberals 28, the Greens 11 and the Conservatives 13.

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Angus Reid poll: BC NDP up by 20 points

Tom Barrett2 Comments

There’s a new poll from Angus Reid Public Opinion today that suggests the B.C. New Democrats are 20 points up on the governing Liberals.

The poll has the NDP with 48 per cent support of decided voters, the Liberals at 28 per cent, the Green party at 11 per cent and the B.C. Conservatives up two points at 11 per cent.

All changes from the last Reid poll, taken Feb. 21-22, are within the margin of error for a poll of this sample size.

The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday of this week. Reid surveyed 809 B.C. adults drawn from an online panel. A sample of this size drawn at random from the general population would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20. (See note below.)

Here’s an updated chart of the polls taken so far this year:

Company Date Lib NDP Cons Green Other Method Sample +/-
Angus Reid 17-18 Jan 31 46 10 10 3 Online 802 3.5
Mustel 11-21 Jan 33 43 11 11 2 Phone 509 4.3
Justason 25 Jan – 1 Feb 26 48 12 11 3 Phone-online 600 4
Ekos 1-10 Feb 27.4 39.0 14.6 13.5 5.5 IVR* 687 3.7
Angus Reid 21-22 Feb 31 47 9 10 3 Online 803 3.5
Ipsos 8-12 Mar 32 51 9 7 1 Online 1,000 3.1
Angus Reid 18-19 Mar 48 28 11 11 2 Online 809 3.5

* Interactive Voice Response

Note: The sampling error margins given here are those provided by the pollster. While online polls have been very successful at predicting recent elections, there is a methodological controversy surrounding the citing of margins of error for online polls. Some experts hold that it is inappropriate to quote a margin of error for an online poll because participants in such polls are drawn from volunteer panels, rather than chosen at random from the general population. For more on this issue, see this story.

(I did a version of this item for The Tyee today that can be found here.)

BC election polls

Tom BarrettLeave a comment

With less than two months to go till the May 14 British Columbia provincial election, we can expect to see a wave of opinion polls. The most recent poll from a major public pollster suggests the NDP has a 19-point lead over the ruling Liberals.

As you can see, pre-election results have been bouncing up and down since the beginning of the year – something that tends to happen with pre-election polls. (Click graph to enlarge.)

Polls - 8-12 Mar

Here’s a summary of the polls taken in 2013:

Company Date Lib NDP Cons Green Other Method Sample +/-
Angus Reid 17-18 Jan 31 46 10 10 3 Online 802 3.5
Mustel 11-21 Jan 33 43 11 11 2 Phone 509 4.3
Justason 25 Jan – 1 Feb 26 48 12 11 3 Phone-online 600 4
Ekos 1-10 Feb 27.4 39.0 14.6 13.5 5.5 IVR* 687 3.7
Angus Reid 21-22 Feb 31 47 9 10 3 Online 803 3.5
Ipsos 8-12 Mar 32 51 9 7 1 Online 1,000 3.1

* Interactive Voice Response

Note: The sampling error margins given here are those provided by the pollster. While online polls have had a high level of success at predicting recent elections, there is a methodological controversy surrounding the citing of margins of error for online polls. Some experts hold that it is inappropriate to quote a margin of error for an online poll because participants in such polls are drawn from volunteer panels, rather than chosen at random from the general population. For more on this issue, see this story.

BC’s coming election: Myth of the demon vote splitter

Tom Barrett1 Comment

Libs and NDP sow fear of third parties siphoning votes. But political life is complicated.
By Tom Barrett
TheTyee.ca

When push comes to shove, do third parties 'steal' votes from larger parties more ready to govern? Image: Shutterstock.
When push comes to shove, do third parties ‘steal’ votes from larger parties more ready to govern? Image: Shutterstock.

We’re going to hear a lot about third parties and vote-splitting as we approach the May 14 election. That’s because everybody who knows anything about B.C. elections knows one big thing.

As a Young Liberal delegate said during last fall’s annual party convention: “The only time the NDP wins is when the free enterprise vote is fractured.”

The Liberals and Social Credit before them have been saying the same thing for more than half a century. When Martyn Brown was campaign director for the BC Liberals in the 2001, 2005 and 2009 elections, he worked that line like a government mule.

“It is a powerful argument, no doubt,” he has written, “one that I helped elevate to an art form in my long time in B.C. politics. It certainly helped elect Gordon Campbell’s three successive majority governments.”

There are, however, a couple of problems with the argument. For a start, as Brown now concedes, it misses the point by ignoring why people vote for third parties. It’s based on an outdated Cold War mentality. It also ignores how voters shift allegiance in elections. And it oversimplifies history.

As political scientist Norman Ruff wrote after the 1996 election — one of the key events in free enterprise vote-splitting mythology — “there has never been a monolithic free enterprise vote in British Columbia.”

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